The most popular topic going around in the last few weeks is the state of the operating system. Much of this has been fueled by Vista's release and its perceived benefit. I think MS came up short here and people are now asking: "Is the monolithic OS still necessary?"
The answer to that is yes and no. Yes, because some of us still need to do offline computing and no because sometimes we don't. For some computer users both on the business and home sides, the PC becomes useless without an internet connection. Interestingly, I think there is a general desire to return to the client/server architecture that dominated the 80's but I don't feel that technology is there yet. Offloading computing to remote servers is still not easy and OS style user functionality hasn't been completely replicated in the web browser yet. There are things like grid computing, and ajax but the former is still hard to access for the average user and ajax is, at best, a band-aid.
So, I think there will be a continued push to remote web resources but there will still be PC's for a little while longer. I predict:
- Web OS's will continue to get more slick but will hit a wall with ajax. This will force a new technology to emerge.
- Thin clients will begin to appear. Think flash memory, stripped down linux OS, a web-browser and wifi.
- Bundled (PC-like) web services will be offered to businesses. Google will probably be first here followed by MS. The winner here will tie their services with the ISP's. Phone, Internet, Email, IM, and an office suite, online disk space, for one monthly fee.
- PC applications will seamlessly beginning to integrate online data. The line between what is on your pc and what is stored on the net will blur.
- Java, C#, and lightweight frameworks will continue as they have been. A shift in dominance will emerge by the language that fixes the web browser. We are still passing around text and relying on cross browser javascript for client side rendering.
- Open Standards will be pushed to help address the previous point.
- A potential unknown here is the effect of TV. An OS that that integrates TV/cable will be a serious contender. I wonder if this is google's plan.
2007-09 is going to be interesting...
GoogleOS Scenarios - readwriteweb via slashdot
Vista the End of An Era? - timesonline via slashdot
Whither Operating Systems? - Dr. Dobbs
Vista Followup Already in the Works - yahoo via slashdot
Google Apps to Become Paid Service - businessweek via slashdot
Amazon Cloud Computing goes beta - cbronline
S3 Meets R3 - Dr. Dobbs
The "Webification" of the Desktop: What Are the Implications for Web 2.0 and AJAX? - ajaxworld